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Forum index » Science and Technology » Math » Probability
Calculating long odds in golf
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Johnny
science forum beginner


Joined: 29 Mar 2005
Posts: 20

PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:25 pm    Post subject: Calculating long odds in golf Reply with quote
Hello, all.

I'm hoping to get some help in thinking about how to calculate a
probability.

What is the p that a golfer will make 11 holes-in-one in a single round
of 18 holes?

I realize this sounds ridiculous, but there is a reason for this
question. You may go to http://barelybad.com/words1.htm and search for
"October 12, 2005" to see it.

The only information we have is that the p of getting three holes-in-one
is 1 in 2 trillion.

How can I translate that statistic into the p of 11 such holes-in-one?

Thanks.
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Nigel
science forum beginner


Joined: 03 Jun 2005
Posts: 37

PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2005 3:41 pm    Post subject: Re: Calculating long odds in golf Reply with quote
Johnny wrote:

Quote:
Hello, all.

I'm hoping to get some help in thinking about how to calculate a
probability.

What is the p that a golfer will make 11 holes-in-one in a single round
of 18 holes?

I realize this sounds ridiculous, but there is a reason for this
question. You may go to http://barelybad.com/words1.htm and search for
"October 12, 2005" to see it.

The article does not reflect normal English usage. I, and every gambler
I know, would accept that the odds of 3 holes-in-one in a round are "2
trillion to 1" and be under no illusion that 3 holes-in-one are the norm.

Using estimates that vague, there's little point in doing mathematically
correct calculations. Taking the cube root of 2 trillion then raising it
to the power of 11 should be close enough for an illustrative number.

It's worth pointing out that holes-in-one are almost completely confined
to par 3 holes and there aren't 11 of those in a typical 18 hole round
of golf so the question is not relevant to real life.

NigelH

Quote:

The only information we have is that the p of getting three holes-in-one
is 1 in 2 trillion.

How can I translate that statistic into the p of 11 such holes-in-one?

Thanks.

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Google
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