Author 
Message 
Protoman science forum addict
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 78

Posted: Thu May 18, 2006 1:59 am Post subject:
"Implied" Probability



What is the difference between odds and probability? Why is 1:1 odds
equal to a probability of 1/2?
I plan on being a bookmaker, and I need to know whether the implied
probability of these odds will be greater than 1 so I can make a
profit:
Home team wins: 1:4
Visiting team wins: 1:1
Tie: 1:9
What is "implied probability"?
Thanks!!!!! 

Back to top 


Michael Zedeler science forum beginner
Joined: 29 Nov 2005
Posts: 17

Posted: Thu May 18, 2006 9:02 am Post subject:
Re: "Implied" Probability



DarkProtoman wrote:
Quote:  What is the difference between odds and probability? Why is 1:1 odds
equal to a probability of 1/2?
I plan on being a bookmaker, and I need to know whether the implied
probability of these odds will be greater than 1 so I can make a
profit:
Home team wins: 1:4

With what is dubbed the frequency interpretation, this means that out of
5 games (1 + 4 = 5), the home team is most likely to win once.
It is the same system as mixing drinks. Home team: 1 part and visitors:
4 parts. 5 parts in total and home team comprising 1/5 = 20% of the mix.
Quote:  What is "implied probability"?

I am not sure. Possibly the probability you get when you do math as
above. There is a lot of mathematics that is related to gambling, called
game theory, see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory
Regards,
Michael.

Which is more dangerous? TV guided missiles or TV guided families?
Visit my home page at http://michael.zedeler.dk/
Get my vcard at http://michael.zedeler.dk/vcard.vcf 

Back to top 


Protoman science forum addict
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 78

Posted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:55 pm Post subject:
Re: "Implied" Probability



You know what? Not many people are going to bet w/me, using those odds;
they're REALLY short. I'm probably going to cater to idiots and the
mathematically and financially challenged. I mean, my commision is
54.5%!!!!!!
$100(.90)=$90
$100(.80)=$80
$100(.50)=$50

$100(2.2)=$220
$220$100=$120
$120/$220=54.5% commision
I'm praying there's more idiots w/o common sense in the world than
smart people... 

Back to top 


z science forum beginner
Joined: 05 Apr 2005
Posts: 17

Posted: Tue May 23, 2006 6:12 pm Post subject:
Re: "Implied" Probability



DarkProtoman wrote:
Quote:  You know what? Not many people are going to bet w/me, using those odds;
they're REALLY short. I'm probably going to cater to idiots and the
mathematically and financially challenged. I mean, my commision is
54.5%!!!!!!
$100(.90)=$90
$100(.80)=$80
$100(.50)=$50

$100(2.2)=$220
$220$100=$120
$120/$220=54.5% commision
I'm praying there's more idiots w/o common sense in the world than
smart people...

Boy, are you in luck:
<http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/electoral.college/> 

Back to top 


Google


Back to top 


